CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2025-02-02T23:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-02-02T23:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/36785/-1
CME Note: Faint CME first seen to the East by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2025-02-02T23:24Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 in later frames. This CME is not visible in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap beginning at 02/15:23Z. The source of this CME is an M4.1 flare from Active Region 3981 (N05E25) beginning at 02/23:04Z. This flare can be seen in SDO AIA 131 along with field line opening seen exhibiting a Southern deflection seen in SDO AIA 171 and 193.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-02-07T06:24Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-02-06T19:00Z
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:

From 2025-02-03 12:30 UTC Forecast Discussion
"...A CME signature that followed an M4.1 (R1) flare at 02/2324 UTC from Region
3981 was identified inside of simultaneous CME signatures originating
from the farside of the Sun. Analysis and modeling of the event
suggested possible effects from the periphery of the CME at Earth over
07 Feb."

Lead Time: 98.05 hour(s)
Difference: 11.40 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M SWAO) on 2025-02-03T04:21Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy